Chat Coronavirus math

[rumithepoet]

Every figure on the stat is a measurement of the outbreak two weeks ago when they caught it.

Current confirmed cases are a TINY FRACTION of infections, because they are only testing people who get sick and show up in hospitals.

The Infected are 10-20x Higher than the Confirmed Cases

Best estimates are that 10-20% of cases need hospitalization. So in places without universal testing (most western nations), only 10-20% of infected get sick enough to go to the hospital where they might be tested.

That 10-20% translates to 5-10x the number of tested cases that are walking around not seeking medical care.

But in the US especially, a lot of folks who are showing up in hospitals are NOT BEING TESTED.

How much does that increase the 5-10x? Who knows.

If we assume only half the people that should be tested actually ARE being tested (that might be significantly overestimating the testing in the US!), then that means that for every confirmed case there are 10-20 more that are walking around feeling okay, but spreading it.

The Number of Confirmed Cases Indicates Infection Numbers from Weeks Ago

With the incubation period and the length of time before people get sick enough to go to the hospital, we know most who test positive (in the nations without universal testing) actually caught the virus 2-3 weeks before.

They get infected, there's a week incubation, maybe they start to feel a scratchy nose like they're coming down with a cold, they get a fever, they don't get better, they go to the hospital, they get tested, then two days later the results show 1 additional confirmed case. But they were infected 2-3 weeks ago.

Italy has implemented massive lockdowns of affected region two weeks ago, and they are still not seeing a slowing of infection rates. Because they got infected before the lockdown.

Exponential Growth is Unfathomable for Most Humans

The US has about 1750 confirmed cases as of March 12.

If you make a conservative estimate and assume there are only 10 infections for every confirmed case, that means the infected rate would be 17,500 infected at the same time as the 1750 confirmed cases.

Now if you assume 17,500 were infected only two weeks ago, and you assume 20% growth PER DAY (which is about what we've seen in western nations and below the 24-40% growth we've seen in the US), then you would expect to have about 225,000 infected Americans right now.

That's a low estimate. 225,000 infected with 1,750 confirmed cases.

And on March 13 with that fairly low 20% day over day growth, we'd expect that to be 270,000.

• March 14: 325,000

• March 15: 390,000

• March 16: 465,000

• March 17: 560,000

You can see how nuts exponential 20% growth per day is.

If you take even just 25% per day growth (which we've seen just about everywhere), but still figure only a fairly fast 2-week delay between infection and confirmation, that 225,000 number balloons to 400,000 infected with 1,750 cases.

If you figure a 3-week delay... 1.9 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.

Rewind a bit and let's assume there weren't just 10 infections per confirmed case, but 20 (due to lack of testing in the US). That means that all those estimated infections would be double. 550,000 low estimate, 800,000 medium estimate, and a high (but not unreasonable) estimate of 3.8 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.

TL;DR: This is real, folks. We need to implement lockdown measures and universal testing to #FlattenTheCurve. And we need to do it yesterday.

Be well out there.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Shag]

the numbers don't mean anything to people until it affects them directly. If the government took measure earlier, it may have lessened the outbreak.
The fact that it actually takes time to decide to close some things in ontario and not quebec, makes the period of wrestling this thing down longer.

 

[Pay2Play]

Every figure on the stat is a measurement of the outbreak two weeks ago when they caught it.

Current confirmed cases are a TINY FRACTION of infections, because they are only testing people who get sick and show up in hospitals.

The Infected are 10-20x Higher than the Confirmed Cases

Best estimates are that 10-20% of cases need hospitalization. So in places without universal testing (most western nations), only 10-20% of infected get sick enough to go to the hospital where they might be tested.

That 10-20% translates to 5-10x the number of tested cases that are walking around not seeking medical care.

But in the US especially, a lot of folks who are showing up in hospitals are NOT BEING TESTED.

How much does that increase the 5-10x? Who knows.

If we assume only half the people that should be tested actually ARE being tested (that might be significantly overestimating the testing in the US!), then that means that for every confirmed case there are 10-20 more that are walking around feeling okay, but spreading it.

The Number of Confirmed Cases Indicates Infection Numbers from Weeks Ago

With the incubation period and the length of time before people get sick enough to go to the hospital, we know most who test positive (in the nations without universal testing) actually caught the virus 2-3 weeks before.

They get infected, there's a week incubation, maybe they start to feel a scratchy nose like they're coming down with a cold, they get a fever, they don't get better, they go to the hospital, they get tested, then two days later the results show 1 additional confirmed case. But they were infected 2-3 weeks ago.

Italy has implemented massive lockdowns of affected region two weeks ago, and they are still not seeing a slowing of infection rates. Because they got infected before the lockdown.

Exponential Growth is Unfathomable for Most Humans

The US has about 1750 confirmed cases as of March 12.

If you make a conservative estimate and assume there are only 10 infections for every confirmed case, that means the infected rate would be 17,500 infected at the same time as the 1750 confirmed cases.

Now if you assume 17,500 were infected only two weeks ago, and you assume 20% growth PER DAY (which is about what we've seen in western nations and below the 24-40% growth we've seen in the US), then you would expect to have about 225,000 infected Americans right now.

That's a low estimate. 225,000 infected with 1,750 confirmed cases.

And on March 13 with that fairly low 20% day over day growth, we'd expect that to be 270,000.

• March 14: 325,000

• March 15: 390,000

• March 16: 465,000

• March 17: 560,000

You can see how nuts exponential 20% growth per day is.

If you take even just 25% per day growth (which we've seen just about everywhere), but still figure only a fairly fast 2-week delay between infection and confirmation, that 225,000 number balloons to 400,000 infected with 1,750 cases.

If you figure a 3-week delay... 1.9 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.

Rewind a bit and let's assume there weren't just 10 infections per confirmed case, but 20 (due to lack of testing in the US). That means that all those estimated infections would be double. 550,000 low estimate, 800,000 medium estimate, and a high (but not unreasonable) estimate of 3.8 million infected for 1,750 confirmed cases.

TL;DR: This is real, folks. We need to implement lockdown measures and universal testing to #FlattenTheCurve. And we need to do it yesterday.

Be well out there.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Look at you with number manipulation. After all this clears up you can apply for an entry level position on the TSE.

 

[Buzzkill]

Anyone visiting a MP right now is definitely not thinking straight...and any mpa still working is crazy!!

Absolutely everything is shutting down , restaurants etc. Visiting a MP is the furthest thing from social distancing imaginable...

 

[krayjee]

Anyone visiting a MP right now is definitely not thinking straight...and any mpa still working is crazy!!

Absolutely everything is shutting down , restaurants etc. Visiting a MP is the furthest thing from social distancing imaginable...

I am with you this time. I was telling the girls not to go to work since yesterday and asking some spa owners to shut them down. Some do listen but some did not. I myself didn't go out at all whole day. Wish everyone all the best.

 

[Whitesnake1987]

I am with you this time. I was telling the girls not to go to work since yesterday and asking some spa owners to shut them down. Some do listen but some did not. I myself didn't go out at all whole day. Wish everyone all the best.

What a fucking sociopath, KJ is such a scumbag. I'll repost some threads to remind everyone of this asshole's true character.

 

[Pay2Play]

I am with you this time. I was telling the girls not to go to work since yesterday and asking some spa owners to shut them down. Some do listen but some did not. I myself didn't go out at all whole day. Wish everyone all the best.

You are the definition of “hypocrite”!

You’re an ignorant, out of touch, little mind surviving in an old body.

 

[pussyforlunch]

None of the escort agencies are stopping anytime soon

 

[Pay2Play]

None of the escort agencies are stopping anytime soon

Is this inside information?

 

[therealcole]

Anyone visiting a MP right now is definitely not thinking straight...and any mpa still working is crazy!!

Absolutely everything is shutting down , restaurants etc. Visiting a MP is the furthest thing from social distancing imaginable...

Fuck you. Hobbying is at it's best right now. Visiting a mp that is not busy is great. The girls really need the money. So much pussy for reduced rates. Even Premier can do walk ups now . It is fucking amazing. I have been seeing some sps as well that I would normally be booked and are available. Usually within an hour or so.

 

[Pay2Play]

Fuck you. Hobbying is at it's best right now. Visiting a mp that is not busy is great. The girls really need the money. So much pussy for reduced rates. Even Premier can do walk ups now . It is fucking amazing. I have been seeing some sps as well that I would normally be booked and are available. Usually within an hour or so.

It’s kinda pathetic that you’re proud to be first in line when there is no line up.

 

[Whitesnake1987]

Fuck you. Hobbying is at it's best right now. Visiting a mp that is not busy is great. The girls really need the money. So much pussy for reduced rates. Even Premier can do walk ups now . It is fucking amazing. I have been seeing some sps as well that I would normally be booked and are available. Usually within an hour or so.

No. Fuck you Pedo.

Sent from my T08 using Tapatalk

 

[therealcole]

It’s kinda pathetic that your proud to be first in line when there is no line up.

It is fucking great. Some girls that did not do bbbjcim before are doing it now because they really need the money.

 

[therealcole]

No. Fuck you Pedo.

Sent from my T08 using Tapatalk

lol Da na na na na ana nanana FATMAN. lol

 

[Pay2Play]

It is fucking great. Some girls that did not do bbbjcim before are doing it now because they really need the money.

I call bullshit

 

[therealcole]

I call bullshit

How would you know. Are you still hobbying? Are you afraid? Go to any Premier location as a walkup and see who is available. Just call them and ask who is available. Go ahead prove me wrong.

 

[Pay2Play]

How would you know. Are you still hobbying? Are you afraid? Go to any Premier location as a walkup and see who is available. Just call them and ask who is available. Go ahead prove me wrong.

I don’t waste time and money at Premier or the other “spas”. There’s better service and selection out there to be had and at better rates.

Keep celebrating your discount prices...lol

 

[Davelovezcurves]

Anyone visiting a MP right now is definitely not thinking straight...and any mpa still working is crazy!!

Absolutely everything is shutting down , restaurants etc. Visiting a MP is the furthest thing from social distancing imaginable...

But krayjee will tell you otherwise. It's beyond crazy going to a spa now. The City is going into shut down thus week or next

 

[UsefulIdiot]

How about a little more grim math. I have seen an estimate that ultimately 70% of people in the world will be exposed to COVIC-19, and the death rate of those infected is in the 1% to 3%, mostly in older and immune compromised folk. So expect about 100 million deaths world-wide, 490,000 in Canada, 70,000 in the GTA. If these figures bear out then we will all have a family member or friend who will die from this disease. And because medical resources will be stretched to breaking point care and treatment will be triaged.

If you have old grudges with members or your family or former friends now is the time to make amends while you still can.

As for sex work, lots of places will shut down, and those that stay open will have limited menus - no BBBJ, DATY, PS, kissing, may be even no FS - so they will have no interest for me. It might even end up that only HJs are on offer for the next year or so! If you are not worried about being infected then get what you can while you can. As for me, I need to be healthy and strong for the challenges that are here now (my business has been crushed) so I cannot take even small chances. Just when I have really started to enjoy this hobby I need to take a break from it.

 

[krayjee]

You are the definition of “hypocrite”!

You’re an ignorant, out of touch, little mind surviving in an old body.

LOL... Read all my posts again. All I did was pointing out it was not the spa that was the riskiest. You yourself do agree with me that time and you were making fun of Dr Snake.

Now the situation has changed, it is getting out of control and lots of people moving around without knowing they have been infected. So I started warning all the girls I know well to stay home the past 2 days and asking some spa owners to shut down. I am always cool and clam, always well informed, know what is good and bad, and know when to stop.