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NFL Betting trends on Thanksgiving. It’s usually been a public winning day.

Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 43-8 straight up (SU) and 35-16 against the spread (ATS).

In that span, road favorites are 23-1 SU and 19-5 ATS on Thanksgiving with the only loss coming back in 2009, when the Giants lost to the Broncos, 26-6.

Betting Thanksgiving in the past has been as easy as following the crowds.

  • Favorites with 60%+ of tickets are 20-7 ATS
  • Public sides (51%+ of tickets) are 30-17 ATS
  • Public sides, who are favorites, are 27-12 ATS
Public sides are .500 ATS or better every year since 2014 and nine of the last 10 years.

+ The over/under for Bills-Lions is north of 50. Totals of at least 50 played on Thursday are 24-14-1 to the under over the last 20 years.

+ Bills road unders are 5-0 this season, going under by 10.8 PPG.

+ The Bills have played twice on Thanksgiving since 2019 with Josh Allen. They are 2-0 SU/ATS, covering by 17.8 PPG.

+ Allen is only 6-6-1 ATS on short rest in his career. He’s 32-23-4 ATS on seven days of rest or more.

  • After an eight-point win over the Browns, Buffalo is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games. Allen has never failed to cover five straight starts.
  • Favorites of a TD or more are 12-23-1 ATS this season.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills’ second half. Under Allen, they are 46-26-3 (64%) against the second half spread. Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t. The Bills are 29-14-1 (67%) against the second half spread when leading at the half.

Detroit’s Struggles on Thanksgiving…

+ Home underdogs are 2-26 SU on Thanksgiving since 2000 and 1-21 SU since ’05.

+ Lions are 3-18 SU, 7-14 ATS as a dog on Thanksgiving in Wild Card era (since 1990).

+ Lions have lost 15 consecutive games SU as an underdog on Thanksgiving.

+ Road favs vs Lions on Thanksgiving since 2005: 13-0 SU, 10-3 ATS covering by 9 PPG.

+ Lions last entered Thanksgiving on a 3-game win streak in 2017 (only other time since 2000).

Best of the Rest…

+ Lions have won three straight games SU for the first time since 2017. They haven’t won four straight SU since ’16.

+ Jared Goff is 2-0 ATS on short rest with the Lions. He’s started one game on Thanksgiving, a 16-14 loss, but covered (+2.5) vs. the Bears last year.

+ Goff is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 starts coming off a double-digit win.

+ The over is 7-3 in the last ten Lions games on Thanksgiving since 2012.

+ Since 2005, teams to win by double-digits the week before Thanksgiving are 18-9 ATS (7-1 ATS since ’16).

+ Giants and Cowboys are both 7-3 SU/ATS this season. This is the first matchup of teams with a 70%+ SU/ATS win percentage in November or later since Panthers/Packers back in 2015, and the only other time since ’12.

+ Giants are TD underdogs this week. In November or later, 70%+ win pct SU & ATS teams who are TD dogs are 10-7 ATS and 3-0 ATS over the last five years.

+ Giants have played twice on Thanksgiving in the last 20 years: 0-2 SU/ATS

+ Saquon Barkley is currently second in the NFL in rushing yards. He was 25-1 to lead the category before the season started.

  • Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS as underdogs this season, with their only loss in their last game as a dog in Seattle.
+ Daniel Jones is 4-5 SU and 7-2 ATS on short rest. Since 2020, he’s 7-0 ATS on short rest, the most profitable QB in the NFL.

+ The under is 31-11-1 (74%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.

+ Giants can go over their preseason win total with a win.

The Giants have been under their win total in five straight years and eight of the last nine, including 9-1-1 to the under since 2011. The streak of five to the under is the longest active streak for any over or under win total.

It’s Not Just A Lions Issue…

+ Dallas is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 Thanksgiving games.

+ Favorites on Thanksgiving Since 2005:

  • Cowboys: 5-8 ATS
  • All other teams: 28-8 ATS
+ Cowboys have lost five straight 1H ATS on Thanksgiving and they are 1-11 1H ATS on Thanksgiving since 2010.

+ Dak Prescott is just 4-8 ATS on short rest in his career, including 1-4 ATS on Thanksgiving.

Best of the Rest…

+ Over is 8-4 in last 12 Cowboys games on Thanksgiving since 2010.

+ Cowboys as TD or higher favorites on Thanksgiving: 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS.

+ Cowboys are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Giants.

+ This is the fifth time Bill Belichick has coached on Thanksgiving: 3-1 SU/ATS (3-0 SU/ATS since 2002).

Only been dog on Thanksgiving once: 2000, +6.5 at Lions, lost 34-9

+ Since 2003, Belichick is 29-15-1 ATS on short rest, including 5-4 ATS without Tom Brady in that spot.

+ Belichick has faced seven teams with a 75%+ win pct on short rest over the last decade: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS

+ Belichick ATS last 20 years by over/under:

  • Under 40: 35-12-1 ATS (74.5%)
  • Under 42: 53-24-2 ATS (68.8%)
  • Under 45: 93-54-5 ATS (63.3%)
  • 45+: 110-87-5 ATS (55.8%)
+ The Patriots defense has been stout, allowing three points in back-to-back weeks. In the last 20 years, New England is 27-10 ATS the week after allowing fewer than 7 points, including 8-3 ATS since 2018.

+ Patriots unders are 36-21 (63%) on the road dating back to 2016.

+ The Patriots have struggled in the first quarter. They have an NFL-low 15 points in the 1Q all season and the only team with no TDs.

+ Vikings are 3-1 SU/ATS on Thanksgiving over the last 25 years.

Kirk Cousins is 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on Thanksgiving in two starts.

  • The first team to have a negative point differential with two or fewer losses at least 10 games into the season? The Vikings.
+ The Vikings are 8-2 SU, but have a negative point differential. In the last 15 years, Belichick has faced 11 teams in November or later who are above .500 SU, but have a negative point differential. Those teams are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS against the Patriots.

+ Vikings lost 40-3 in Week 11 against the Cowboys. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 35 points or more are 72-42-5 ATS (63%). These teams are 48-24-4 ATS (67%) in November or later.

+ Vikings are 8-2 SU entering this game against the Patriots. Teams with a 75%+ win pct are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.

+ Since 2015, Kirk Cousins is 33-17 ATS off a SU loss, the most profitable QB in the NFL in that spot.

+ Kirk Cousins at night: 10-18 SU, 11-17 ATS

  • 3rd-least profitable on ML at night last 20 years (Stafford/Dalton)
  • Ranked 187th of 193 QBs at night ATS
Thursday Night Football Unders:

  • 23-16 since 2020 (6-5 this season).
  • The under is 17-8 in the last 25 games on Thursday Night Football.
  • Thanksgiving night unders are 11-4 (73%), with seven unders cashing in a row.
  • On the other hand, the over has hit on TNF in four of the last five weeks.
Thanksgiving Betting Notes

Comebacks Are Rare! - Since 2005, teams who lead at the half on Thanksgiving are 30-16-1 ATS in the second half, including 15-6-1 ATS since 2014.

Pays to Fade The D - Dallas and Detroit are a combined 13-21 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2005.

Public Hates Detroit - Since 2005, the public has faded the Lions ATS 11 times on Thanksgiving (spread % of 51% or more on opponent) — DET is 0-11 SU in those games (2-9 ATS).

Favourites Domination - In the last 25 years, favorites of seven points or more on Thanksgiving are 24-2 SU and 22-4 ATS.

Superlatives - Most Profitable QB ATS on Thanksgiving Last 20 Years 2-0 ATS: Josh Allen, Kirk Cousins, Peyton Manning, Big Ben, Tom Brady


Most Profitable Teams ATS on Thanksgiving Last 20 Years

3-0 ATS: Dolphins
2-0 ATS: Bills, Patriots, Steelers

Divisional Unders: Late in the season, betting divisional unders have been profitable:
  • Over/Under: 44.5 to 60
  • Postseason or Regular
  • Division game
$6,311 WON 228-153-5 RECORD 60%
 
I don't think the Lions ever won a U.S. Thanksgiving Day game since the beginning of time. The Ford family only have their innovator Grandfather Henry to thank for.
That’s a shame. If I remember correctly, they lost to the Bears by 1 pt in the last 30sec last year… it’s like a cursed😅
 
That’s a shame. If I remember correctly, they lost to the Bears by 1 pt in the last 30sec last year… it’s like a cursed😅
Most insane,
Largest comeback in NFL history!!!!!!!!!
insane.. Kirk cousins!
Poor matt Ryan on the losing end again!!
thats why I love football and hobby. Never know who’s going to win and and the same for hobbying! Never know which mpa, will give you the best experience of your life!
love life and hobby!
lets go knuckleheads!
🥃
 
A tale of 2 games. First half was completely dominated by the Colts. 2nd half by the Vikings. A new low for Colts fans in an already very challenging year.
 
Most insane,
Largest comeback in NFL history!!!!!!!!!
insane.. Kirk cousins!
Poor matt Ryan on the losing end again!!
thats why I love football and hobby. Never know who’s going to win and and the same for hobbying! Never know which mpa, will give you the best experience of your life!
love life and hobby!
lets go knuckleheads!
🥃
This one should be one of those game of the year!!
 
Most insane,
Largest comeback in NFL history!!!!!!!!!
insane.. Kirk cousins!
Poor matt Ryan on the losing end again!!
thats why I love football and hobby. Never know who’s going to win and and the same for hobbying! Never know which mpa, will give you the best experience of your life!
love life and hobby!
lets go knuckleheads!
🥃
Incredible comeback!! But that vikings defense is bad, 31st I think overall.
 
Lots of motivation for nfl teams, and mpa’s for this upcoming new year. Especially with economic figures coming in!
those best mpas, hopefully, show their faves,
les , they go elsewhere..I told u gf, I would say this!
 
Lots of motivation for nfl teams, and mpa’s for this upcoming new year. Especially with economic figures coming in!
those best mpas, hopefully, show their faves,
les , they go elsewhere..I told u gf, I would say this!
Now ffs! Where’s that goat?? massage planet!
brady? Let’s go bucs!
now as New Year’s Day is very important to me…. Hopefully, u dudes. Have had your greatest MPA experiences, of all time!
I know, I have!
 
So how about those Cowboy's and Steelers?
Dallas Cowboys Thumbs Up GIF by Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Making the Team
 
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    ❤️ SANA, NINA and KK are here today for your massage needs ❤️ Lily Spa ❤️ 2190 McNicoll ❤️ Scarborough ❤️ M1V 5M2 ❤️ (647) 531-8288 ❤️
  35. bnwellness_wilson:
    Blue Nile Wellness Center, we have 4 young girls are working today, young pretty student Sophia and young fun Yoyo open mind with 36DD, Cute GFE Ella and Fun sweet Lina are providing deep tissue and sensual massage. Pls call 416-3985777 book appointment and walk in always welcome, back entrance and parking available. 350 Wilson Ave North YorK
  36. Annie Spa:
    🎉🍒ANNIE SPA🎉🍒 ✅7-1001 SANDHURST CIRCLE✅ 👌SCARBOROUGH ON M1V 1Z6👌 ☎️(437) 818-8896☎️ ☎️(416) 291-8879☎️ (FINCH & MCCOWAN) OPEN 10am to 9pm MONDAY to SUNDAY 🔥✅NEW MANAGEMENT💯NEW GIRLS🔥🔥 🔥GORGEOUS NEW YOUNG ASIAN GIRLS - TODAY’s ROSTER INCLUDES: 🔥 Ivy ❤️ is new girl in our branch, shy and sweet but also very vocal and needy, she demands your happiness and satisfaction. Slim body, supple soft breasts with long nipples and a toned bum bum will have you intoxicated by Ivy’s good looks
  37. SunriseRH:
    SATURDAY at SUNRISE SPA: MIA, MICHELLE & SUMMER. 10 East Wilmot St, Unit 27, Richmond Hill, on ☎️ 647-325-8086 ☎️ MIA is a young Vietnamese beauty with the looks and the skills. MICHELLE is a young, curvaceous beauty, 5’2” & 130Lbs, 37DDD-31-41, a trim waist, and a nice butt. Come and be pampered. SUMMER is a sweet Asian babe, 5’3” with a captivating 36D-28-39 figure
  38. NewOriental:
    SATURDAY at 🍏💚NEW ORIENTAL SPA💚🍏: HAPPY, LULU & PHOENIX. 10 East Wilmot St, Unit 26, Richmond Hill, on ☎️ 647-381-2688 ☎️ HAPPY is a slim Korean lady with great massage skills & lots of extra fun. LULU is a friendly and very sexy Vietnamese girl. She is a lot of fun, and can be wild at times. PHOENIX is a gentle sweet Filipina lady, 5’4” and 105Lbs, with 34C-24-34 assets
  39. Dreaminn:
    SATURDAY[ at 💭𝗗𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗠 𝗜𝗡𝗡 𝗪𝗘𝗟𝗟𝗡𝗘𝗦𝗦 𝗦𝗣𝗔💭: ELSA, HONEY & LULU. 10225 Yonge St (North of Major Mackenzie), Richmond Hill, ON ☎️ 𝟲𝟰𝟳-𝟴𝟮𝟵-𝟮𝟵𝟴𝟯 ☎️ ELSA is slim, petite & very pretty student, early 20’s about 5’2” and 105 Lbs. Elsa has an innocent look about her, but she can drive you wild with pleasure, and provides a great massage. olor=#D4af37]HONEY[/color] (*NEW TODAY) is a beautiful slim Asian lady with an ample bosom
  40. Sparkling Spa:
    SPARKLING SPA INTERNATIONAL GIRLS FOR A VARIETY OF APPETITES!!!! KOREAN PARTY GIRL SUMMER AND HK HOTTIE FOX!!!☎️(905) 604-8186 Spa Land Line☎️ ☎️(437) 446-6688 NEW Spa Cell Phone 50 LOCKRIDGE AVE UNIT#8 NO SPA LIKE US ANYWHERE NEAR U
  41. GoldenFlower:
    SATURDAY at 💛⭐🌟🌻 GOLDEN FLOWER SPA🌻 🌟⭐💛, 8380 Kennedy Rd, Unit C6 (Kennedy & Hwy 7), Markham, ON 905-258-0777: Elina, Jojo, Misa & Monica. After 9pm: Linda Elina is a tall, slim & beautiful Persian lady with the ability to make you very satisfied. Jojo is a beautiful young fair skinned Hong Kong girl who can melt all your cares away. Misa is a young, pretty & petite Viet
  42. Red Rose Spa:
    🌸 We have 5 hot brown girls today 🌸 CHASITY, NIMRAT, SARIKA, MONIKA, PAYAL PEARL, PARY, MIMI, NISHA, MALIYA, KIRAN 🌸 2588 Birchmount 🌸 2 Invergordon 🌸 647-702-8800 🌸 Please visit for a great erotic massage
  43. ASPA:
    SATUR𝗗𝗔𝗬 𝗔𝗧 𝐀 𝐒𝐏𝐀: Jenny and best massage Rachel. 🅰️𝐀 𝐒𝐏𝐀🅰️, 28 South Unionville Ave, Unit 5, Markham. 🅰️𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹 𝟲𝟰𝟳-𝟳𝟮𝟵-𝟲𝟲𝟬𝟲 𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗲𝘅𝘁 𝟲𝟰𝟳-𝟴𝟯𝟵-𝟱𝟵𝟲𝟲🅰️ JENNY is a sexy Asian honey, about 165 Cms., slim to medium build, beautiful natural 36C’s, long sexy legs & big hips, good massage & excellent services. Jenny has sexy smooth skin and a very good personality.
  44. HolidaySpa:
    Saturday at 🌴😎🌅𝓗𝓸𝓵𝓲𝓭𝓪𝔂 𝓢𝓹𝓪🌅😎🌴3517 Kennedy Rd, Unit 4, Scarborough ☎️𝟰𝟯𝟳-𝟮𝟰𝟳-𝟭𝟭𝟵𝟵☎️Lucy & Maggie. Lucy is a beautiful and slim Asian lady with a happy disposition and great services. Maggie is a slim and very sexy Korean lady, very pretty and accommodating. Come and try, you will like.
  45. ForeverWarden:
    Saturday at 🫦❤️🔴🟥♾️𝓕𝓞𝓡𝓔𝓥𝓔𝓡 𝓢𝓟𝓐♾️🟥🔴❤️🫦 2190 Warden Ave, Unit 201, Scarborough 𝟰𝟭𝟲-𝟴𝟬𝟬-𝟳𝟴𝟴𝟳: Cindy, Misaki & Tracy, Cindy is a slim beauty, 5’4”, natural C Cups & wonderfully long nipples. Her massage is nice, her bbbj will drive you wild & her cfs finish is a dream come true. Misaki is a young and beautiful real Japanese girl with natural 34DD Cups and a great body. She is open to bbbj, dfk and cfs,
  46. Lulu1980:
    Hi guys 🤪🤪🤪Phoenix blossom Spa 🌹🌹🌹Tiffany sexy body big boobs 😘😘😘very good body slide 🌹🌹🌹🌹🌹and Angela very good table shower😘😘😘😘😘 deep massage 👍👍👍👍5124 Dundas St W Etobicoke ☎️ 416-817-3366
  47. Bellagio Wellness &Spa:
    💗💗💗 ℍ𝔸ℙℙ𝕐 𝕄𝔸𝕐 💗💗💗🌟🌟🌟 MAY 11th , SATURDAY 🌟🌟🌟 ☎️ (905) 707-6866 🕙🌟🌟🌟Open 10:30-10:00🗺#33-160 East Beaver Creek 🗺 7 Rms 🛏🌟🌟🌟Table Shower(TS)+Massage * 2hr $120* (Appt. Only) , TS & massage 1hr $90, 🌟🌟🌟$40/50/60 for 30/45/60min 🌟🌟🌟Attendants: We have 4️⃣ today 🍀🍀🍀 🌹🆕 DAISY 🌹🆕 TINA 🌹 LILIAN 🌹🆕 NAT 🍀🍀🍀 NEWSFLASH 🍀🍀🍀 🆕 TINA & LILIAN & 🆕 DAISY & 🆕 NAT ‘ s BACK 🍀🍀🍀 TODAY 🍀🍀🍀
  48. Montreal 1969:
    Angel seduction
  49. Moon&beauty:
    MoonMoon spa/416 887 8801/8131Yonge st #203 /Turkish Persian girl and Asian girl (new Amy ) in today
  50. Jenny’s Spa:
    🎉🍒JENNY’S SPA🎉🍒 ✅5170 DUNDAS STREET WEST✅ 👌ETOBICOKE ONTARIO M9A 1C4👌 ☎️(647-893-5196)☎️Call or Text ☎️(437-888-3759)☎️Call Only (ETOBICOKE) OPEN 10am to 9pm MONDAY to SUNDAY 🔥✅GRAND OPENING💯NEW GIRLS EVERYDAY🔥EXCELLENT MASSAGE + SERVICE QUEENS NOW AVAILABLE AT JENNY’S SPA FOR ALL YOUR MASSAGE AND SPECIAL EXTRA NEEDS🔥💯😘🔥❤️👌 🔥TWO BEAUTIFUL NEW YOUNG ASIAN GIRLS EVERYDAY🔥REAL PICTURES OF ATTENDANTS💯💯💯 - TODAY’s ROSTER INCLUDES: 🔥 Anna😘- A stunning sexy girl from Hong Kong
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